Melbourne Cup Betting Tips and Offers, Tuesday 1st November 2016, Flemington, Race time: 4:00am (GMT)
It’s that time of year again for one of Australia’s most prestigious and talked about racing spectacles, the Melbourne Cup. We have 24 runners for this year’s renewal, several of which have flown in from across Europe to try and get their hands on the £1.7m prize given to the winner. It’s a truly wonderful two mile handicap and one with a very interesting betting market.
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Melbourne Cup Betting Tips
There’s some key trends to look out for in this year’s Melbourne Cup which once again has a rather lengthy racecard. Experience in such a packed field has certainly paid off in the past. Eight of the last 10 winners of this race had won previously in a field of 15 or greater, with one of the exceptions having finished second in an earlier renewal of this race. It’s also hugely beneficial if a horse has been out in the last 28 days as no horse in the past decade has won here with a longer break than this.
Weightings and stall draw also have to be considered. There has been a strong trend towards horses carrying a little more weight, anything 8st 5lbs or over. The higher handicapped horses have triumphed nine out of the last 10 times although the top weight has failed to win in this time. As for the draw, far inside or outside is not a place you ideally want to be. Since 2007, 14 of the 20 horses to finished in the top two places started between stalls five to 14, so there is some definitely bias there.
One horse that ticks most of the boxes for this race is the second favourite Jameka. The Australian horse is making the step up to two miles for the first time but has shown signs she can go further when competing over one and half miles.
Her inside draw won’t be an issue as she’s usually quick of the mark but she’s been rather heavily penalised by the handicappers here. The four year old looks talented enough to overcome this given though what great shape she has been of late. Her only defeat in the last three was at the hands of Tuesday’s favourite Hartnell (4/1, Betfred) over 10 furlongs but the step up in trip looks like hurting Hartnell more. The five year old hasn’t raced further than 10 furlongs since a disappointing run here last year so two miles isn’t look ideal for him.
With Hartnell not quite justifying his short price, there may be more appeal looking towards the very in-form Heartbreak City who has won all of his last three starts. While two of these were over hurdles, the most recent, and most impressive of the three, was not.
His vast experience in big fields and experience of this distance should help him overcome his bad draw, making him a fantastic each way bet. For a rather more adventurous each way bet, there is Grand Marshal at 40/1 with Bet365. His 21st place finish in this race last year was riddled with misfortune and if he can get the rub of the green this time then his recent Group 2 win at Moonee Valley suggests a good showing can be made.